Think about deciding who you’ll spend your life with—it’s exciting, nerve-racking, and possibly the most all-in bet you’ll ever make. Will you be trading that single life for years of misery and a drawn-out divorce, or will it become the best decision of your life, shared with someone who fills each day with joy and growth? You’ve only known this person for a few months or maybe a year, and even though you love them, there’s no absolute guarantee. It’s a gamble—one well worth it, but a gamble all the same. And we all know a friend who ended up on the wrong side of that bet.
While we’re not in the marriage-broker business (that’s a lawsuit waiting to happen), this scenario perfectly illustrates the core challenge Evara solves: making high-stakes decisions with limited data—the kind that can reshape your life or your organization’s future.
Evara delivers, what we call, “Inferential AI”—enabling confident decision-making even in uncertain conditions with limited data. With as few as a handful of datapoints, Evara helps businesses uncover hidden opportunities, forecast unpredictable environments, and assess and minimize risk.
Our proprietary technology, built on decades of research, forms the basis of our tool. It lets you and your business take advantage of your unique knowledge and expertise in a way not previously possible. As new observations and new data roll in—even as little as a single “actual”—Evara systematically and reliably updates your assumptions in a way that is consistent, reduces biases and adapts to real-world evidence. This process is known as Bayesian inference, a dual focus on expert knowledge + live data.
This dual focus on expert knowledge + live data is particularly powerful in low-data regimes, and further scales as more information becomes available. The result is a flexible and user-friendly tool, designed to be a practical and intelligent extension of you.
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Evara helps minimize risk, reduce human bias, gain control of and forecast uncertain environments; so you can make better and confident decisions. It is “Inferential AI:” adaptive decision-making under uncertainty
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If you've ever thought, “We don’t have enough data” or felt uneasy about relying on analytics, you're operating in a limited data environment. In such cases, businesses often resort to guesswork and assumptions—but traditional analytics struggle here, making systematic errors when data is sparse.
The reality is that even the smallest datasets hold significant value—a fact that challenges the common belief that only large-scale data is useful. When combined with expert knowledge and intuition, limited data becomes a powerful asset for making informed, confident decisions.
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Imagine you explore a new pricing strategy: increasing the price of product A by 10% from X to Y. Instead of a risky full switch, you test Y on every 10th sales call, aiming to determine as quickly as possible whether it performs better or worse than X.
With just five test sales at price Y, traditional thinking tells us this is too little data to draw valid conclusions. But this traditional thinking changes if we incorporate your prior beliefs.
Instead of traditional thinking, we can frame the problem as a weighted coin toss: each test is a flip, where Heads = a sale and Tails = no sale. The original price X is an old coin whose weight (conversion rate) you know. The new price Y is a fresh coin—initially unknown. Traditionally we would demand a large number of flips to estimate its weight reliably.
However, you are not starting from zero knowledge about the weight of this coin: you likely expect some impact from the price increase—perhaps a slight dip in conversions, but higher revenue per sale. Or maybe a perceived exclusivity of Y even boosts conversions. By comparing these expectations with just five flips, you can already adjust your assumptions about Y’s true weight—learning much faster than if you ignored prior knowledge.
The key insight is huge: data alone is not enough. Even tiny datasets can be powerful, but only when interpreted through the lens of informed assumptions.
Plus, this concept extends far beyond pricing strategies and coin flips. It applies to everything from customer surveys and insurance models to bank loans, interest rates, and supply-demand forecasting. Wherever even limited data is available, prior knowledge can unlock deeper insights—faster.
Before Evara, leveraging this approach of expert knowledge + live data required a PhD-level statistician. But we at Evara believe statistical knowledge shouldn’t be a bottleneck. With Evara, anyone can leverage their unique expertise and harness the power of data to make smarter, confident, and faster decisions—learning from information that was previously out of reach or thought impossible.
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The problem of unused data exists at every level of decision-making, across all businesses and industries. This means valuable insights often go untapped, leaving significant potential on the table. Until now, the right tools to unlock this hidden value have been missing.
Evara transforms the way we think about data. By bridging what data is available with domain expertise, our tool extracts valuable insights and information from even as few as one or two observations and data points. This is something that previously would be inaccessible to humans and certainly be impossible for data hungry methods.
Behind the scenes Evara deploys our proprietary technology known as “automatic and generalized Bayesian inference.” As a software tool, Evara integrates with existing analytics and decision-making tools, and currently supports Excel, as the world’s most utilized analytics software. Technically, upon integration, Evara’s “host” (such as Excel) is transformed into what is scientifically known as a probabilistic programming language.
(Luckily, the details about what that really means is largely of theoretical importance, which is a good thing as probabilistic programming demands a high level of technical and statistical prowess—needing essentially a doctorate in either programming, statistics, or both. Like Evara’s founding team.)
On the flip side, this highlights the power of probabilistic programming and reinforces its credibility. This is also where Evara comes in. Beyond scientific and technical development, Evara removes the barriers that have traditionally made probabilistic programming inaccessible.
For those interested, we welcome exploration of key concepts such as prior, posterior, probabilistic modeling, and conditioning. In fact, we encourage it!
Years of scientific research have made Evara a powerful yet accessible tool—bringing you the full potential of probabilistic programming without the need for advanced statistical expertise. We handle the complexity, so you can focus on making smarter, data-driven decisions.